Wednesday, May 13, 2009

GENERAL ELECTION 2009: Who's the winner?

On Wednesday, May 13, the final and concluding round of voting for the 15th Lok Sabha was held, bringing to an end a mammoth, two-month long exercise to elect a new Government. The results will be declared on Saturday, May 16.
There is, of course, intense speculation as to who will emerge as the front-runner: The Congress of the BJP. Everybody is reconciled to the fact that as in 2004, this year's too shall be a fractured mandate. Neither the Congress-led UPA nor the BJP-led NDA will secure anything proximate to a majority in the Lok Sabha. Which means, by Saturday afternoon the great hunt for 'post-poll' allies will begin in right earnest.
So, what does it look like after the fifth round of polling?
On Wednesday, 24x7 news channels went to town with their exit polls. Here's what they had to say:

Congress + Allies 185-205
BJP + Allies 165-185
Third Front 110-130
RJD+LJP+SP 25-35
Others 20-30

.Headlines Today
Congress + Allies 191
BJP + Allies 180
Left 38
Others (incl BSP) 134

.India TV
Congress + Allies 195
BJP + Allies 189
Left /Third Front 113
Others 14

Congress + Allies 199 [Congress 155]
BJP + Allies 191 [BJP 153]
Left /Third Front 104
Others 48

Congress + Allies 195
BJP+Allies 189
Others 14

.Times Now
Congress + Allies 198 [Congress 154]
BJP + Allies 183 [BJP 142]
Left /Third Front 112 [Left 38]
Others 50

.Star News
Congress + Allies 199 [Congress 155]
BJP + Allies 196 [BJP 153]
Left /Third Front 100
Others 48

At the risk of looking silly on Saturday, here are my projections:

Congress + Allies 165-175
BJP + Allies 180-185
Left 30-35
AIADMK 20-25
BSP 20-25
TDP 10-15

I will update my figures on Thursday.

Exit polls in 2004 had projected the BJP-led NDA as the winner. When the results were declared, the prediction came untrue: The Congress and its pre-election allies got 216 seats against a projection ranging from 170 to 205 seats. The BJP-led NDA secured 187 seats against projections of 240 to 250 seats.

1 comment:

Meenakshi said...

then let us just wait for the results! these are just exit poll estimates.